Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Gulan the 6th August 2007: Rumours from Pentagon

The text in Kurdish.

Last week Robert D. Novak wrote that USA and Turkey are making cooperation to attack the PKK. Novak is columnist in The Washington Post.

It seems that the Turkish army had prepared a "Plan B" for the case that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and AK Party would win the parliament elections in Turkey. Maybe this was the topic of the secret meeting in Hudson Institute in June.

When Erdogan won the elections, the army put immediately the plan into action.

Turkish newspapers do not question the success of a joint Turkish-American military mission to North Iraq. USA has already lots of problems in the Arab part of Iraq. The Turkish army is also facing daily loses in its own battle field, Southeast Turkey. What would be the result of putting these two armies together in a even more difficult environment?

What consequences Turkey's attack with USA's acceptance to North Iraq would have? One must think at least four areas where the impacts would be different and lead to various effects.
How the battles would go in Kandil and other parts of South Kurdistan? They are difficult area for foreign soldiers but home for the Kurdish fighters. Does Pentagon really think that they could do better there than in the mountains of Afghanistan?

What such an attack would mean to the fragile administration of Iraq? If USA would start an operation in Kandil it should transfer soldiers from Arab areas to Kurdistan. This would increase the difficulties of the American army and make the partition process of Iraq faster. And George W. Bush should transport still more American soldiers to Iraq. Guess what American people think about it. The president elections are after one and half year.

Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki, when You go to Ankara, be careful! Kurds follow every word you say.

How would the Kurds in Turkey react? Remember that they consider an attack to Kirkuk like an attack to Diyarbakir. How would the Turks react if the battles would not be a success and more Turkish soldiers would die in Iraq than die nowadays in Southeast Turkey? During 1984-1999 Turkey attacked 36 times North Iraq but none of these visits was a success story from their perspective. Escalation of the conflict from Southeast Turkey to Iraq could have also a good effect. When loses of the Turkish army would be big enough Turkey had to accept that the Kurdish question needs a political solution.

And fourth, how a Turkish attack to South Kurdistan would affect the large Kurdish Diaspora community? It follows every battle from internet and satellite televisions. The virtual Kurdish community searches new ways to develop the Kurdish uprising. For example it will analyse Al Maliki's journey to Turkey. What do the Kurds here in Europe think? I have heard many Kurds to say: "I am not a political person. But if the situation in my country becomes still worse I will also do something for my nation."

The Kurdish readers know the answers to my questions. But it seems that decision makers in USA and Turkey do not know.

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