Gulan: Who gains when Kurds protest in Turkey?

http://gulan-media.com/h626/g31.pdf

Some months ago I wrote an article about Turkey’s EU membership negotiations to Finnish journal Kosmopolis. It is an academic journal published by Finnish Peace Research Association. While writing the article I went systematically through Turkey’s political development since summer 2005.

This triangle repeated many times: Prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to introduce to parliament new reform laws. Then occurs restlessness in the Kurdish area, caused by provocation of unknown actors. This gives the Turkish army a reason to demand harder actions. The consequence is that the parliament changes the laws towards opposite direction than Erdogan wanted.

Erdogan went to Diyarbakir August 2005 and spoke about the Kurdish question and need for democratization process in Turkey. Soon a serie of bomb attacks started in Hakkari province. PKK said it was not their work. Then in November 2005 JITEM and Deep state were cached in the scene of the crime in Semdinli. But what happened to Erdogan’s reform laws? They were put on ice.

Still he tried spring 2006 to give the parliament new democratization laws. And what happened? PKK guerrillas were killed by chemical weapons in Bingöl and Kurdish anger turned towards violent riots in Diyarbakir. What was the consequence of this? Erdogan’s reform package failed. Instead the parliament accepted hardening of the anti-terror law 3713. The chances removed many of the reforms done due to pressure of the European Union.

Turkey’s EU membership negotiations were put partially on ice December 2006 but this is not enough for the Deep state. Erdogan has not given up his aim to change Turkey. He has promised to amend Article 301 of the Turkish Penal code. This article makes it criminal to insult Turkishness and restricts crucially freedom of expression in Turkey.

The parliament will vote the new president after one month and Erdogan is on the threshold to enter president’s palace - against the will of the generals. It is easy to guess that something will happen in Southeast Turkey. Claims that Abdullah Öcalan is slowly poisoned is like throwing a burning match to petrol.

Newroz has been very tensed in Turkey during recent years. 2005 there was flag crisis which is also known as flag provocation. One child burned Turkish flag in Mersin which led to a paranoia reaction among Turks. At the end of March 2006 guerrilla funerals turned into riots in Diyarbakir. But both these things happened only after newroz. This year problems seem to start already before it.

Will parliament amend or abuse Article 301? Will it vote Ergodan to be Turkey’s next president?

Who gains when Kurds protest in Turkey? It is easy to say who loses: Prime Minister Erdogan and the reform process of Turkey. Kurds campaign for their rights. But they are also used as a tool in the battle about power between Turkish reformists and the Deep state. But it seems that the Deep state underestimates the resources and abilities of the Kurdish movement. Kurds do not accept any more to be a tool for others in their fight against each other. Instead they use the situation for their own benefit.